Key Facts

  • ASB’s latest Housing Confidence Survey reports more Kiwis expect a rise in housing prices, the first time in 18 months.
  • ASB economist Nat Keall confirms a net 34% of New Zealanders anticipate an increase in housing prices.
  • Net migration is strong and housing inventory is stabilising, presenting a positive landscape for the housing market.
  • There is a split opinion about whether it’s a good time to buy in the current market.
  • ASB economists project a price increase but anticipate this will be slower than the previous one.

Article Summary

ASB economists have noted what they describe as an “important milestone” – for the first time in 18 months, more New Zealanders believe that house prices will rise rather than fall. This shift was reported in the latest quarterly Housing Confidence Survey by ASB, with economist Nat Keall stating a net 34% of respondents are expecting housing prices to go up. Keall also pointed out that, with strong net migration and stabilising housing inventory, current high mortgage rates are the primary constraint on the housing market.

Auckland residents display the highest level of optimism regarding house price expectations. However, Keall made it clear that this outlook is a nationwide phenomenon. Despite the current financial landscape and while noting the uncertainty, Keall agrees with the expectation of rising house prices, though he foresees a slower rate of increase than previously experienced.

Regarding the optimal time to invest, New Zealanders remain divided, especially given the tax and regulatory changes impacting the housing market. With the country’s economic landscape becoming clearer, analysts anticipate a better understanding of how these changes will affect prospective buyers’ perspectives and actions.

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